Crude Oil Up 60% in Three Weeks and Pushing Toward $100 — There Is No Exit from the Iran Crisis

I have been watching crude oil charts every morning for weeks, and the trajectory has become unmistakable. WTI was near $60 three weeks ago. It is now at $95. That is a 60% surge, and it shows no signs of decelerating.

The "War Is Over" Narrative Lasted Exactly 36 Hours

Last Monday, President Trump signaled that the conflict with Iran was winding down. Markets reacted immediately — oil dropped, equities staged a relief rally. For about a day and a half, it seemed like the worst might be over.

Then reality reasserted itself.

Oil prices snapped back and pushed higher than before. This pattern has repeated multiple times now: a positive headline from Washington creates a brief dip, followed by a move to new highs. The market has stopped believing these announcements, and rightfully so.

Why Oil Has No Ceiling Right Now

The fundamental problem is straightforward: there is no real solution on the table.

Trump declared the U.S. would stop targeting Iranian oil fields. The logic makes sense — when Iranian facilities get hit, Iran retaliates against neighboring UAE and Saudi infrastructure, which only pushes oil prices higher. It is a self-defeating cycle.

But Israel operates on its own timeline. Fresh strikes on Iranian targets occurred overnight despite U.S. calls for restraint. Meanwhile, Iranian ships continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz, selling oil to China and Japan in yuan-denominated transactions — effectively circumventing sanctions while funding Iran's operations.

Trump's threat to "massively blow up Iranian gas fields" if Iran attacks Qatar reads as exactly what it is: rhetoric without follow-through. Iran recognizes that the stock market is Trump's primary concern, and they are positioning accordingly.

The Chart Points to $120

Current WTI prices around $95 are colliding with the 2023 highs — a key technical resistance level. A clean break and hold above this zone opens the path to $120.

Brent crude is already flirting with $110. USO has reached $122. Buyers continue piling into crude futures, and the geopolitical risk premium keeps expanding on top of the supply-demand fundamentals.

Energy Drives Everything Else

Oil's breakout attempt to the upside is happening simultaneously with SPY's breakdown attempt to the downside. These two moves are not coincidental — they are mechanically connected.

Rising oil prices push inflation expectations higher. The Fed cannot cut rates into an energy price spike. Corporate margins get squeezed. Consumer sentiment deteriorates. This feedback loop is what makes the current setup so challenging for equities.

For markets to genuinely stabilize, oil needs to stabilize first. And for oil to stabilize, there needs to be real action in the Middle East — not countries announcing they will help, not headlines designed to move markets for a few hours.

Until the Strait is genuinely secured and the conflict shows real signs of resolution, crude has one direction: up.

The Ethanol and Corn Trade Worth Watching

A secondary effect of surging oil prices is growing interest in the ethanol market. Corn futures are starting to attract attention, with some analysts projecting a move toward $20-21. At current levels, it is relatively inexpensive and could benefit significantly if the energy crisis persists. Worth keeping on the radar.