US Stock Market: Forget Economics - Understanding Trends Is All You Need
đ¯ Why Is the US Market Called an "Easy Market"?
After over 25 years of studying the US market, the conclusion is simple: All you need to know about the US stock market is trends.
Economic indicators? Forecasts? Predictions? Honestly, you don't need any of that. Even the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that the Federal Reserve publishes quarterly rarely turns out to be accurate. If reports created by dozens to hundreds of PhD-level economists consistently miss the mark, why should ordinary investors waste their energy on economic forecasting?
đĄ Why the US Market Is an "Honest Market"
One of the most distinctive features of the US market is its high institutional investor ratio.
- Average institutional ownership in top 10 NYSE and NASDAQ stocks by market cap: approximately 73%
- Some stocks like Visa have institutional ownership as high as 98%
What happens when institutional ownership is high?
- Trends work well - Once a direction is established, the market moves strongly in that direction
- The market responds honestly - Logical movements dominate over emotional individual trading
- Predictability increases - Understanding the principles makes it possible to respond effectively
đ Understanding Principles Makes the US Market Easy
To succeed in the US market, understanding market principles is more important than complex economic theories.
â Key Points
"Economics, forecasts, predictions - none of these are necessary. The US market moves according to trends."
How is this possible? The US market has a characteristic where once a trend is established, it tends to persist for a considerable time. During uptrends, even bad news has only temporary effects. During downtrends, even good news quickly loses its impact.
đ ī¸ Practical Investment Tips: The Importance of Data Analysis
To succeed in US market investing, you need data analysis skills.
- Develop habits of analyzing data using Excel
- Practice analyzing charts and indicators yourself
- Build the ability to make your own judgments rather than relying on others' analyses
đ Conclusion: The Power of Trend Investing
The US market is one where principles work. Don't get lost in complex economic indicators - focus on the direction of trends.
- Be aggressive during uptrends
- Be conservative during downtrends
- Don't miss trend reversal signals
Remember just this, and you're halfway to success in US stock investing. In the next article, we'll explore the Three Laws of Stock Price Movement in more detail.
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