Coreweave, BigBear.ai, Unity: Three Stocks for a Software Snap-Back
Coreweave, BigBear.ai, Unity: Three Stocks for a Software Snap-Back
Why three names instead of one
If you want the cleanest exposure to a software-sector snap-back, the ETF is still the simplest tool. Single names move farther, but they move farther in both directions. So instead of betting everything on one ticker, I like splitting the same conviction across three different angles: AI infrastructure, defense AI, and game engines. The odds of all three collapsing in lockstep are lower than the odds of any one of them doing so.
What the three names share is more interesting than what separates them. All three got punished hard. All three have started showing early signs of basing on the chart. None of them is a "safe" pick — each is a setup, not a sure thing.
1. Coreweave — the GPU cloud for AI training
What they actually sell
Coreweave is not a general-purpose cloud like Azure or AWS. They run specialized data centers stuffed with the world's most powerful GPUs, rented out specifically for training and running large AI models. Think of it less like a Shell gas station and more like jet fuel for the AI industry.
Why I like it
They have a long-term contract backlog, a deep NVIDIA partnership, and they're expanding capacity aggressively. AI compute demand has consistently come in above almost every published estimate. As long as AI adoption keeps moving at the current pace, their forward revenue is unusually visible for a young company.
What the chart shows
Price has just edged above recent highs. If you want a cleaner entry, waiting for a confirmed break above $140 is the more conservative path. The big selling cycle looks done, and the structure has shifted to a slow grind higher.
2. BigBear.ai — defense and government AI
What they actually sell
BigBear builds AI software for the US military and federal agencies — large-scale data processing, logistics, predictive intelligence. I'm always cautious about companies with "AI" stamped into their name (it has a dot-com feel), but this one has actual government contracts and an actual backlog.
Why I like it
The US government is in the middle of a sustained push to embed AI into national security infrastructure. Defense AI line items are growing fast, and BigBear has been quietly winning relevant contracts. Because the market cap is still small, every additional contract is asymmetrically meaningful for the stock.
What the chart shows
Down around 70% from all-time highs. Price has been basing around $3 and is starting to lift. But there is heavy overhead supply from every prior buyer who is now underwater, so the move up will not be a straight line. This one needs patience.
3. Unity Software — game engines and digital twins
What they actually sell
Unity is the engine millions of developers use to build games, simulations and AR experiences — plus digital twins for automotive and architecture. Newer AI tools like Unity Vector help games and apps monetize through smarter in-app ads and experiences.
Why I like it
Gaming isn't shrinking — it's mutating toward more immersive virtual worlds, and Unity dominates the tooling layer. Management has spent the last year trimming the operating base for profitability, and those changes are starting to show up in the financials.
What the chart shows
Down about 87% from the highs. Price has been basing around $17.50, roughly the same level as the previous year. That kind of long basing pattern, paired with a leaner cost structure, is the setup I want to see before a meaningful rally.
How the three compare
| Ticker | Theme | Drawdown from highs | Strength | Main risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coreweave | AI training infra | Modest | Contract backlog, NVIDIA partnership | GPU capex burden |
| BigBear.ai | Defense and government AI | ~70% | Rising defense AI budgets | Small cap, high volatility |
| Unity | Game engine and digital twins | ~87% | Dominant tooling, improving margins | Slower game ad market |
How I think about position sizing
The reason for splitting across three is to diversify the single-name risk inside the same sector view. If AI infra cools, defense AI still has government budgets behind it. If defense AI moves slowly, the game-engine cycle is independent. But all three are high-volatility names, so position sizing has to be much smaller than what you'd run with the XSW ETF version of the same idea.
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