Michael Burry's 5 New Bets Share One Pattern

TL;DR: Burry's latest 13F adds Microsoft and PayPal as new positions, increases Adobe and MSCI, and flags Salesforce as next. All five are AI-narrative casualties trading far below recent highs.

Michael Burry's quarterly 13F always sparks a small frenzy. The Big Short halo is part of it — about $700 million made shorting subprime in 2008, then a Christian Bale film. But before that he was already a quantitative value picker that other investors copied off his blog. The five names he selected this quarter look unrelated at first glance, yet a consistent pattern emerges.

1. Microsoft — new position

A $3 trillion company being bought out of fear is itself an unusual picture. The stock fell to around $411, briefly touching $355. The trigger is the $80B annual AI capex bill and uncertainty about when it pays back. Fourteen years ago someone called Microsoft "a dead company." That story comes back to mind.

2. PayPal — new position, ~3.5% of book

A name down more than 80% from its peak gets a fresh 3.5% slot. A $43.7B market cap business generated $5.5B in free cash flow last year. P/FCF sits in the high single digits. The stock collapsed; the cash machine did not.

3. Adobe — added shares

The stock slid from $700 to $255 while Burry kept adding. This is the cleanest "AI eats my workflow" fear case in software. Revenue growth has cooled from double digits to high single digits, but free cash flow margin is actually expanding.

4. MSCI — added shares

MSCI runs an index licensing and ESG data toll booth. But P/FCF of 30x sets it apart from the other four. The thesis is that returns on capital and margins justify the premium. Honestly, of the five picks this is the hardest one to square with the rest.

5. Salesforce — next on the list

Not yet purchased but explicitly flagged. Same setup as Adobe — large-cap SaaS pressed by the "AI replaces enterprise software" narrative.

The pattern across all five

Different industries, different multiples — but step back and the setup rhymes.

• Deep drawdowns: 30–80% off peak across the basket
• AI-narrative casualties: PayPal (fintech competition), Adobe and Salesforce (AI substitution), Microsoft (AI capex burden)
• Buyback firepower: every name throws off enough free cash flow to repurchase shares aggressively at depressed multiples

Burry's message is simple: when fear runs ahead of fundamentals, you stand opposite the crowd. The catch is that 13F is reported up to 45 days after quarter-end. We don't know his entry price, target, or how much he has trimmed since. The point is not to copy the trade but to copy the discipline — only buy names that pass your own valuation and margin of safety check.

FAQ

Q: How delayed is the 13F? A: Up to 45 days after quarter-end. This snapshot reflects March 31, 2026 holdings — already more than a month stale.

Q: Which pick feels most "Burry"? A: Adobe and PayPal — textbook contrarian setups where the market priced in fear far past what fundamentals support.

Q: Why MSCI? A: Less contrarian, more quality-compounder compression. He likely views the index moat and margins as worth a 30x FCF multiple.