SMH Just Printed 17 Up Days in a Row — Chase or Wait for the Pullback?
SMH Just Printed 17 Up Days in a Row — Chase or Wait for the Pullback?
TL;DR The SMH ETF has just printed 17 consecutive up days — possibly its longest winning streak ever. Intel +22%, AMD +12.6%, and Nvidia +2.75% in a single session captured the AI capex story driving NASDAQ to new highs. My read: don't fight the trend, but don't chase it here either. Wait for the pullback.
17 Days Up in a Row — A Streak Like I've Rarely Seen
NASDAQ printed another high today, and the engine is unmistakable: semiconductors. SMH has now closed green 17 sessions in a row — as best I can recall, the longest run of its kind. AMD, Nvidia, and Micron — the names actually building out the AI buildout — are dragging the index higher.
Just today: Intel +22%, AMD +12.6%, Nvidia +2.75%. You don't see that kind of single-session move very often.
The NASDAQ-Dow Divergence Tells the Story
S&P 500 was up too, but nowhere near as much. The Dow actually closed red. That gap isn't random — it's what happens when one sector leads and that sector happens to dominate one specific index. NASDAQ is tech-heavy. Tech is currently chip-heavy. Chips are on a tear. That's the whole story in three sentences.
| Index | Today | Tech Weight |
|---|---|---|
| NASDAQ | Strong up | Very high |
| S&P 500 | Modest up | Medium |
| Dow Jones | Down | Low |
If You Only Watch the Middle East, You Miss the Real Trade
Recently I've seen more than one comment along the lines of "this rally makes no sense, I'm fully short." Middle East tension is a real story — I'm not dismissing it. It can move markets. But staring exclusively at geopolitical headlines means you completely miss the data center capex cycle and the AI adoption story currently driving big-cap earnings higher.
Long-term, the price of a stock follows the performance of the underlying business. Right now those businesses are putting up some of the strongest numbers we've seen in years.
Why I'm Not Chasing — Even Though the Chart Looks Great
The chart is exciting. I've also seen enough exciting charts to know how some of them end. About two months ago, gold did the same thing — relentlessly higher until it wasn't, then down more than 20% in three sessions.
Do I think semis drop 20% in three days? No. Could it happen? Anything can. But fighting this momentum — shorting it — isn't a game I want to play. And neither is buying it up here.
I already own some semiconductor-related names. I'm happy to watch the rally. New entries wait for a pullback.
What I'm Watching Next — Russell 2000 and Setup Discipline
NASDAQ has been flashing positive on EdgeFinder for a while. The reason I haven't added isn't lack of signal — it's lack of pullback. Same story for the Russell 2000, which I'm watching for an entry.
Good setups always come back. Markets aren't going anywhere. The riskiest thing you can do is panic about missing out and make a last-second chase. Picture this: if semis violently reverse over the next few weeks, the max pain belongs to whoever chased the top. But if the trend continues, the max pain belongs to whoever shorted it. Both extremes hurt. The middle path — patient, planned entries on pullbacks — is how I avoid being either of those people.
More in this Category
$350 Billion Is About to Leave the Market: The Triple IPO Collision and Big Tech's Dilution Wave
$350 Billion Is About to Leave the Market: The Triple IPO Collision and Big Tech's Dilution Wave
SpaceX ($75B), OpenAI ($60B), and Anthropic ($60B) are racing to IPO at the same time while Google prints $85B in new shares — draining roughly $350 billion of liquidity over the coming months. The key question is where that cash actually comes from.
Is Holding the S&P 500 Really Diversified? Why 10 Stocks Made 72% of This Year's Gains
Is Holding the S&P 500 Really Diversified? Why 10 Stocks Made 72% of This Year's Gains
The S&P 500 looks like 500 diversified stocks, but 72% of this year's gains came from the top 10 names, and those 10 make up about 40% of the index. Owning the index may actually be a concentrated bet on a handful of stocks.
SpaceX IPO: Why Insiders Won't Dump Their Shares
SpaceX IPO: Why Insiders Won't Dump Their Shares
Despite fears of a post-IPO crash like Uber or Rivian, three structural forces — tax friction, securities-backed lending, and a Nasdaq rule change — make a mass insider sell-off unlikely.
Next Posts
Why Hyperscalers Are Pouring $200B Into Nuclear PPAs
Why Hyperscalers Are Pouring $200B Into Nuclear PPAs
AI hyperscaler data center spending now runs near $400B per year, and the nuclear PPAs signed by Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta already total over $200B. Here's why the merit-order pricing mechanism makes nuclear an automatic beneficiary.
The Four-Tier Nuclear Stack: Where the Real Leverage Lives
The Four-Tier Nuclear Stack: Where the Real Leverage Lives
From mining to operating utilities, here's a stock-by-stock breakdown of how each tier of the nuclear value chain makes money. Cameco, Centrus, BWXT, Oklo, Constellation, Talen — the leverage sits in different places than you'd think.
A $100 Nuclear Portfolio Allocation Blueprint
A $100 Nuclear Portfolio Allocation Blueprint
How would I split $100 across the nuclear value chain? Operating utilities 50, fuel cycle 25, miners 15, innovation reactors 10. Here's the reasoning, how to adjust for risk tolerance, and the ETF route for simpler exposure.
Previous Posts
AI Memory Showdown: Why Micron Crushed 5 Rivals in a 6-Round Face-Off
AI Memory Showdown: Why Micron Crushed 5 Rivals in a 6-Round Face-Off
When I scored MU, AVGO, MRVL, WDC, STX, and NTAP across six identical metrics, Micron won 4 of 6 rounds with the best margin (41.5%), revenue growth (194.1%), and balance sheet (14.9% debt/equity) in the group.
Hidden Leverage in AI Memory Stocks: Seagate at 1,046% and NetApp at 236% Debt-to-Equity
Hidden Leverage in AI Memory Stocks: Seagate at 1,046% and NetApp at 236% Debt-to-Equity
Among 6 AI infrastructure stocks I scored, Seagate (1,046.6%) and NetApp (236.1%) carry debt-to-equity ratios that vastly exceed the 50% threshold for non-financial companies. The leverage hidden behind their headline growth stories deserves closer scrutiny.
Six AI Infrastructure Roles, One Data Flow: How MU, AVGO, MRVL, WDC, STX, NTAP Differ
Six AI Infrastructure Roles, One Data Flow: How MU, AVGO, MRVL, WDC, STX, NTAP Differ
In an AI datacenter, Micron is the fuel, Broadcom the highways, Marvell the bridges, Western Digital the engine, Seagate the warehouse, and NetApp the traffic control. Six stocks, six distinct positions in the same data stack.