3 Space Stocks That Could Stumble After the SpaceX IPO: RKLB, ASTS, and RDW

When You Can Buy the Real Thing, the Proxies Lose Their Premium

Rocket Lab has been a 10x revenue grower. AST SpaceMobile has FCC approval for 248 satellites and has proven phone-from-space connectivity works. Redwire has grown revenue 15x and supplies actual hardware to satellites and space stations. All three are real companies doing real work.

But all three share a problem. None of them make money. All are burning cash at an accelerating rate. And all carry a valuation premium that exists partly because investors couldn't buy SpaceX directly — until now.

When SpaceX goes public, that proxy premium is likely to compress. Here's what I'm watching for each name.

Rocket Lab: The Closest Public Proxy to SpaceX

Rocket Lab is the closest thing the public market has to SpaceX. They build and launch their own rockets with Electron, have a larger rocket called Neutron under development, and more than half of their revenue now comes from building satellites and space systems.

The growth numbers are staggering — revenue has increased more than 10x over approximately 6 years. But this is also where caution is warranted. Rocket Lab still doesn't make money. Losses are actually growing as the company pours cash into Neutron development. And management has opened the door to selling up to $3 billion of its own stock over time.

So you have the company itself becoming a major seller at exactly the moment SpaceX becomes available to buy. That's a setup for meaningful downside.

My entry zone: Low $90s — roughly a third of where it trades today. Given the direct competition with SpaceX, that kind of move is very much on the table.

AST SpaceMobile: The Boldest Bet with the Most SpaceX Exposure

AST SpaceMobile is trying to do something extraordinary — beam standard cellular signal from satellites directly to the phone in your pocket. No special hardware needed. They have FCC clearance for 248 satellites and working hardware in orbit proving the concept.

The problem is the financial reality. AST is barely generating any revenue while burning through hundreds of millions of dollars per year. At current prices, you're buying a vision, not a business.

What makes AST uniquely vulnerable to the SpaceX listing is its dual exposure. It competes directly with Starlink for the same direct-to-phone market, and it depends on SpaceX rockets to launch its own satellites. Competitor and supplier rolled into one — that's a difficult position when your competitor is about to become the most high-profile stock on the market.

My entry zone: Low $80s — closer to where fundamentals justify given the tight SpaceX dependency on both sides.

Redwire: Impressive Growth, Troubling Profit Trajectory

Redwire manufactures the infrastructure that goes on satellites and space stations — solar arrays, avionics, docking hardware — and recently added a defense drone business. Revenue growth has been remarkable at more than 15x over about 6 years.

But the profit picture is moving in the wrong direction. Losses have ballooned in recent years, and the company has funded much of its growth by issuing new shares. Dilution is a red flag that deserves attention.

My entry zone: Around $13-14. Whether it gets there depends on how crowded space names react when SpaceX becomes available.

Side-by-Side Comparison

Factor	Rocket Lab	AST SpaceMobile	Redwire
Revenue growth (6 yrs)	10x+	Minimal	15x+
Profitability	Losses widening	Large losses	Losses ballooning
SpaceX relationship	Direct competitor	Competitor + dependent	Indirect supplier
Key risk	$3B stock shelf + SpaceX competition	Near-zero revenue + dual SpaceX exposure	Shareholder dilution
Entry zone	Low $90s (~1/3 of current)	Low $80s	$13-14

The Common Thread

None of these are bad businesses. They all address real markets with real technology. But they all operate in a crowded trade, they all burn cash aggressively, and they all carry some degree of "SpaceX proxy" premium.

When easy money rotates into SpaceX itself, these names are likely to pull back the hardest. That's not a reason to avoid them permanently — it's a reason to wait for better prices. The entry zones above are where I'd start getting interested, and the SpaceX listing may be exactly the catalyst that creates those opportunities.