Why I'm Long Copper but Won't Touch Gold Right Now

Two Commodities, Opposite Calls

Two commodities. I went long one yesterday and won't put a dollar in the other. The difference is one line on the macro scorecard.

Why Copper Pulled Me In

Copper had a very shallow pullback yesterday and I went long there. Price had broken above a key resistance, took a breather, and I stepped in during that pause. Stop sits below the prior resistance.

On the scorecard side, copper has been printing a strong macro reading for several days. It's not just the chart looking clean — inflation, jobs, and growth metrics are all pointing the same way, and that aligned with the chart at the same time. That's the spot I want.

My rule is simple: I only take a bet when macro momentum (economic data flow) and technical momentum (price flow) point the same direction simultaneously. Copper meets that bar right now.

So Why Not Gold

Plenty of viewers ask me to talk gold more. Sorry — pulling up the gold chart, the score is too neutral.

Metric	Copper	Gold
Macro score	Strong buy	Neutral
Inflation	Favorable	Favorable
Jobs	Favorable	Negative (dollar tailwind)
Growth	Favorable	Negative (dollar tailwind)
Chart	Key resistance broken	Range

Gold does have one favorable input — softer-than-expected inflation. That's a positive. But strong jobs data and resilient growth point to a strong dollar, and a strong dollar is gold-negative. The two forces are roughly canceling out, which is what gold looks like right now.

When an asset is in that state, I leave it alone. Betting on a setup you can't read clearly tends to teach you the lesson via losses.

That Doesn't Mean I've Quit Gold

Long-term, I'm a gold bull. So when short-term momentum isn't there, I use a different instrument.

Yesterday I sold a May 29 $83 cash-secured put on GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF). Here's what that means:

I sold someone a $83 put and collected the premium.
If GDX falls below $83, I have to buy shares at $83.
If GDX trades sideways, slightly down, or up, I just keep the premium.

$83 is right around the 200-day moving average — i.e., "the level I'd actually want to be a buyer at." Selling the put there means getting paid to wait at that level.

This is fundamentally different from going outright long with a tight stop. It's a way to express a long-term bullish view through option-selling when the short-term trade signal isn't clean.

Same Logic on XOP

Crude itself is trying to hold $88/bbl support. It hasn't fallen back to $65 even after the wartime move unwound, which tells me geopolitical risk hasn't fully cleared.

I used the same option play here. I sold a $148 cash-secured put on XOP (oil & gas E&P ETF). Since I sold it, the share price has risen and time has decayed the put — currently up $665 unrealized.

Wrapping Up

Short-term active trading: only when macro and technical momentum are both strong simultaneously. Copper passes, gold doesn't.
I don't force trades on assets without momentum. Trading a quiet chart just burns time.
Long-term bullish views can be expressed through option selling. The GDX put and the XOP put are both examples.

Trading is risky. This is my view, not advice.