The Hidden Winners of the Space Race: Why CACI and Kaman Win Regardless of SpaceX

Why I'm Looking Past the Rockets

With SpaceX heading toward its public listing, nearly every space-related stock has caught a tailwind. But here's the question I keep coming back to: does a company actually need SpaceX to win, or does it win no matter what SpaceX does?

That single filter narrows the field dramatically. Most space stocks are burning cash and hoping for a future that may or may not arrive. But two names stand apart in my analysis — CACI International and Kaman Holdings. Both are already profitable. Both are driven by structural demand, not hype. And both operate as genuine picks-and-shovels plays in the space and defense economy.

CACI International: A Profit Machine in Space Stock Clothing

Most investors know CACI as a government technology and intelligence contractor — the company that builds cybersecurity and data systems for the federal government and the Pentagon. What fewer people realize is that CACI has quietly become a real space company.

The turning point was the acquisition of Arca, which makes electro-optical sensors and autonomous software that fly on low Earth orbit satellites. On top of that, CACI manufactures one of the few American-made laser terminals that allow satellites to communicate with each other in space.

This is a picks-and-shovels business in the truest sense. Every time a satellite goes up, CACI wins — regardless of whose rocket carried it.

The financial profile reinforces this:

Metric	Figure
Consecutive profitable years	20+
Annual profit	~$500 million
Revenue backlog	3+ years already signed
Current price range	Low $500s

Twenty consecutive years of profitability is nearly unheard of among space stocks. While competitors are widening losses and promising future breakeven, CACI is already there — and has been for two decades.

At the low $500s, the stock sits below what I estimate the business is worth. And since it's not a SpaceX competitor but rather a supplier to the broader space ecosystem, the IPO shouldn't exert much downward pressure here.

Kaman Holdings: The Most Mispriced Name in the Basket

Kaman makes the physical components that go inside missiles and rockets — solid rocket motor nozzles, payload fairings, and inner stages. These parts end up in the Patriot, the Stinger, and the Javelin weapon systems.

The data point that grabbed my attention: Kaman has more than doubled its revenue in just 3 years. More importantly, it accomplished something almost nobody else in this space stock basket has managed — it flipped from losing money to generating real profit. And that profit has more than quadrupled in 3 years.

Yet the stock trades in the upper $50s, roughly half of what I think the business is actually worth.

What drives Kaman is Pentagon missile spending, not SpaceX excitement. The hype isn't behind this stock. That's precisely why it's mispriced — the market is focused on flashier names while Kaman quietly compounds.

The Framework: Hype vs. Structural Demand

When SpaceX finally lists, easy money will rotate into it. The stocks most vulnerable to that rotation are the ones whose valuations are built on being "the next SpaceX" or "the closest public proxy to SpaceX." When you can buy the real thing, the proxies lose their premium.

CACI and Kaman don't carry that risk because their investment cases were never about being a SpaceX substitute. Satellites going up and missiles being built — those are the drivers, and those aren't going away regardless of what happens on listing day.

FAQ

Q: Isn't CACI primarily a government IT contractor, not a space company? A: It was, historically. But the Arca acquisition added electro-optical sensors for LEO satellites and one of the few American-made satellite laser communication terminals. Space is now a meaningful and growing part of the business, layered on top of a stable, profitable government services base.

Q: Why is Kaman trading at such a discount if the fundamentals are this strong? A: The market's attention is on higher-profile space stocks like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Kaman doesn't generate headlines about rockets or satellite constellations — it makes missile components. That lack of narrative visibility creates the valuation gap.

Q: Could SpaceX's IPO still affect these stocks negatively? A: Any broad space stock selloff could create temporary pressure. But because CACI and Kaman aren't priced as SpaceX proxies, the structural risk of capital rotation away from them is much lower than for companies like Rocket Lab or Redwire.