Why U.S. Stocks Are Falling Less: A Global Market Comparison
Why U.S. Stocks Are Falling Less: A Global Market Comparison
TL;DR The S&P 500 is down 6.6% from its peak, but Japan has fallen 12.8%, Germany 12%, China 10.6%, and the UK 9–12%. America's status as a net oil exporter and dollar strength are creating a relative shield.
Everyone knows the stock market is falling. The real question is where it is falling the least.
The Global Scoreboard
Lining up peak-to-current drawdowns makes the picture surprisingly clear.
| Market | Drawdown from peak |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -6.6% |
| UK FTSE | -9 to -12% |
| China Shanghai Composite | -10.6% |
| Germany DAX | -12% |
| Japan Nikkei | -12.8% |
The U.S. has fallen the least. By a significant margin.
When panic arrives, capital flows to the strongest economy, the strongest currency, and the strongest stock market. The U.S. checks all three boxes simultaneously.
Why the Dollar Keeps Climbing
The dollar index is rebounding. This is not just about U.S. economic strength.
When global investors sense danger, they switch to "cash is king" mode. They sell risk assets and move into dollar-denominated holdings. That surge in dollar demand pushes the currency higher. U.S. economic growth data is also coming in surprisingly strong, providing a second pillar of support.
The geopolitical conflict itself is paradoxically creating a structure that benefits the dollar and U.S. equities. The more the world panics, the more capital returns to America.
The Net Oil Exporter Advantage
The U.S. is a net exporter of oil. In the current environment, this is a decisive difference.
The Strait of Hormuz risk puts inflationary pressure on the entire world, but the magnitude of the shock varies by country. Japan and Europe are heavily dependent on imported oil. A supply disruption hits those economies far harder than it hits the United States.
Rising oil prices still create inflation pressure for the U.S. This is not good for anyone. But on a relative basis, a country with its own oil supply is undeniably better positioned than one that imports most of its energy.
Relative Winners, Absolute Losers
One important caveat: saying the U.S. is the relative winner does not mean the U.S. is doing well.
Rising inflation and high oil prices hurt America too. But in investing, what often matters is relative performance, not absolute returns. A 6.6% drawdown stings, but 12.8% in Japan stings more than twice as much.
For this dynamic to shift, one of two things needs to happen: geopolitical risk resolves, or a U.S.-specific negative catalyst emerges. Neither appears imminent.
More in this Category
Four Mega-Caps in 48 Hours: The Hinge Week for 2026
Four Mega-Caps in 48 Hours: The Hinge Week for 2026
Over 20% of the S&P 500 reports next week, and Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are clustered into a single 48-hour window. Here's why this is the hinge week for 2026 — and what to listen for in each print.
SMH Just Printed 17 Up Days in a Row — Chase or Wait for the Pullback?
SMH Just Printed 17 Up Days in a Row — Chase or Wait for the Pullback?
SMH has now closed up 17 sessions in a row — possibly its longest streak ever. Intel +22%, AMD +12.6%, Nvidia +2.75% in a single day. My read: don't fight it, but don't chase it here. Wait for the pullback.
If Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed Chair — The Hawkish Card Hidden Behind the Rate-Cut Headline
If Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed Chair — The Hawkish Card Hidden Behind the Rate-Cut Headline
Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair may be less dovish than the market thinks. The likely concurrent balance sheet reduction, the AI-as-disinflation hypothesis, and a different stance on forward guidance — what this means for markets.
Next Posts
Selling Cash-Secured Puts on Gold During the Correction
Selling Cash-Secured Puts on Gold During the Correction
Sold GLD $360 puts for $2,920 in premium as the gold put-call ratio hit extreme bearish levels—a classic contrarian signal. Meanwhile, rate expectations shifted from 2-3 cuts to 20% odds of a hike by year-end.
Hormuz Strait Blockade: Chinese Ships Turned Away as Markets Plunge
Hormuz Strait Blockade: Chinese Ships Turned Away as Markets Plunge
WTI at $97, Brent above $103. Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and turned away Chinese vessels. VIX touched 30. The Kharg Island variable this weekend will determine Monday's market direction.
From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes — How Oil Flipped Monetary Policy
From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes — How Oil Flipped Monetary Policy
WTI at $97 has flipped rate expectations from cuts to hikes. The RBA already raised citing Iran oil risks. Dollar Index at 99.94, Bitcoin at $66,300. The rate cut trade is dead — for now.
Previous Posts
Sellers Control the Market as Iran-US Tensions Escalate
Sellers Control the Market as Iran-US Tensions Escalate
The S&P 500 was rejected at the 200-day moving average and the VIX hit 26.64, implying 1.66% daily moves. Trump's Iran deal claim was denied by Tehran within hours, leaving markets in a trust vacuum where oil prices are the key tell.
Three Positions to Build Before the Fear Breaks — QQQ, TSM, JPM
Three Positions to Build Before the Fear Breaks — QQQ, TSM, JPM
QQQ for broad growth rotation, TSM for real AI infrastructure exposure, JPM for normalization upside. Not bottom-calling — three-bucket positioning for when fear unwinds faster than expected.
The Signal Under the Noise — Why the AI Infrastructure Cycle Hasn't Stopped
The Signal Under the Noise — Why the AI Infrastructure Cycle Hasn't Stopped
Hyperscaler CapEx surging, TSMC leading-edge near full utilization, Nvidia data center revenue growing 100%+. War headlines blocked the view, but the AI infrastructure demand cycle never paused. Sentiment reset — fundamentals didn't.